Inputs: momentum, trendVelocity
Momentum 1/100 with trend velocity 0/100 — trend is rolling over.
Prediction result · Ensemble engineUpdated 3:57 AM
SMTCSemtech Corporation stock price outlook
$127.38-9.56% since prev closeBearish
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is trading at $127.38, down 9.56% since the previous close and -3.5% over the past week. Price sits below its 50-day average by 18.95%, with price momentum at 1/100 and trend velocity at 0/100. Sentiment across 6 recent headlines reads net constructive at 64/100. Volatility risk is elevated (100/100) and the stock is 47% of the way up its 52-week range. The weighted factor score lands at 24/100 — a bearish signal. Research only, not investment advice.
Universal leanmarket
SMTC
Semtech Corporation
$127.38-9.56%
LEANSOFT caution / pressure
WHY
- Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is trading at $127.38, down 9.56% since the previous close and -3.5% over the past week. Price sits below its 50-day average by 18.95%, with price momentum at 1/100 and trend velocity at 0/100. Sentiment across 6 recent headlines reads net constructive at 64/100. Volatility risk is elevated (100/100) and the stock is 47% of the way up its 52-week range. The weighted factor score lands at 24/100 — a bearish signal. Research only, not investment advice.
- Bear input: Momentum 1/100 with trend velocity 0/100 — trend is rolling over.
RISK
Signals are model output from public data, not personalized investment advice.
INVALIDATE
Invalidate on a reclaim of the session offer, catalyst relief, or model edge flipping bullish.
AI Signal
Bearish · Strong bearish edge
live data
Full public-market mode: chart history, quote, and news inputs were available.
Chart feed
Cron market chart feed
Quote/history
Six-month public chart history loaded.
News feed
6 relevant headlines found.
Signal inputs
Technical factors and news sentiment evaluated across multiple signal inputs.
News Sentiment64/100
Price Momentum1/100
Trend Velocity0/100
Volatility Risk100/100
Historical Modeling: Visualized ranges are mathematically derived from historic volatility metrics, corporate filings, and option-implied volume profiles. They represent statistical points of interest for research purposes, not financial execution commands or advice.
Why It Matters
Signal Explanation
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is trading at $127.38, down 9.56% since the previous close and -3.5% over the past week. Price sits below its 50-day average by 18.95%, with price momentum at 1/100 and trend velocity at 0/100. Sentiment across 6 recent headlines reads net constructive at 64/100. Volatility risk is elevated (100/100) and the stock is 47% of the way up its 52-week range. The weighted factor score lands at 24/100 — a bearish signal. Research only, not investment advice.
Analyst Engine · Specialist model ensemble
44% of trees lean bearish on SMTC
Weighted factor score across 16 signal inputs evaluating 9 features: momentum, news, volume, volatility, range, sentiment divergence, trend structure, and oscillator. Consensus and weighting applied. Each specialist bot inspects a different slice of the feature set, casts a directional vote, and contributes a confidence weight to the final score.
Engine edgeStrong bearish edgeBearish
Inputs: newsSentiment, dayChange
News positive but tape disagrees — divergence is itself a warning.
Inputs: unusualVolume, dayChange
Volume read 31/100 with price drift -9.6% — no clear footprint.
Inputs: volatilityRisk, momentum
High volatility (100/100) without momentum support — wide path, more downside variance.
Inputs: pctOfRange, trendVelocity
Mid-range positioning — no edge from range alone.
Inputs: newsSentiment, weekChange
Sentiment 64/100 vs week change -3.5% are in agreement — no divergence edge.
Inputs: vsSma50, momentum
Price -18.9% under 50d SMA with no momentum reclaim — downtrend intact.
Inputs: momentum, trendVelocity
Composite oscillator at 1 — washed-out zone, mean-reversion candidate.
Inputs: momentum, dayChange, vsSma50
Momentum 1/100 with negative tape and price under the 50d SMA — downside continuation.
Inputs: newsSentiment, weekChange
News 64/100 and weekly change -3.5% do not create a clean follow-through read.
Inputs: unusualVolume, trendVelocity
Volume 31/100 is quiet and trend velocity is weak — move lacks sponsorship.
Inputs: volatilityRisk, pctOfRange, momentum
Very high volatility (100/100) with weak momentum is a rough setup for holders.
Inputs: pctOfRange, dayChange, weekChange
Range position 47% is too middle-of-the-road to matter.
Inputs: newsSentiment, momentum, weekChange
Sentiment 64/100 and momentum 1/100 are not aligned enough for a clean read.
Inputs: vsSma50, momentum, trendVelocity
Price is still under the 50d SMA and the trend has not reclaimed control.
Inputs: momentum, trendVelocity, weekChange
Oscillator at 1 does not show a rebound edge.
Why the ensemble agrees
- Momentum 1/100 with trend velocity 0/100 — trend is rolling over.
- High volatility (100/100) without momentum support — wide path, more downside variance.
- Momentum 1/100 with negative tape and price under the 50d SMA — downside continuation.
Counter-trees
- Composite oscillator at 1 — washed-out zone, mean-reversion candidate.
Bull Case
- Composite oscillator at 1 — washed-out zone, mean-reversion candidate.
Bear Case
- Momentum 1/100 with trend velocity 0/100 — trend is rolling over.
- High volatility (100/100) without momentum support — wide path, more downside variance.
- Price -18.9% under 50d SMA with no momentum reclaim — downtrend intact.
Latest Market Headlines
Headline titles only, from the publisher named on each card. Each links to the original story.
Yahoo Finance70
NVTS vs. SMTC: Which Semiconductor Stock Should You Buy Right Now?
10/28/2026, 6:39:00 AM
MSN63
Semtech (SMTC) is up 10.39% in one week: What you should know
6/15/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Yahoo Finance61
Semtech (SMTC) Expands AirLink 5G Features, Is The Stock Still A Bargain?
10/31/2026, 4:13:00 PM
MSN61
Semtech (SMTC) is a great momentum stock: Should you buy?
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Nasdaq57
Semtech (SMTC) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
8/24/2025, 5:00:00 PM
Key stats
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $11.89B
- 52-week range
- $201.99/$60.28
- Volume
- 3,207,598
- Avg volume
- 3,451,046
- Analyst 1-yr target
- $207.50
- Exchange
- NASDAQ-GS
Source: Nasdaq public quote data. Research only.
Insider trades
0 buys · 1 sells by SMTC insiders (SEC Form 4 filings)
- SELL Walsh Paul V Jr Director · 2026-10-23$70K
Earnings Intelligence
Next
Nov 23, 2026
Estimate
$0.92
Actual
$0.51
- • Last report Aug 25, 2026 (Jul 2026): EPS $0.51 vs $0.41 expected, +24.39% surprise.
- • Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
- • Next report expected Nov 23, 2026, consensus EPS $0.92 (Zacks estimate via Nasdaq; the company may confirm a different date).
Risk Warnings
- • Signals are model output from public data, not personalized investment advice.
- • High volatility — position sizing and stops matter more here.
- • Confirm liquidity, spreads, and your own thesis before acting.
SMTC questions
What is the MarketPicks AI signal for Semtech Corporation stock (SMTC)?
As of Nov 1, 10:57 PM ET, the ensemble reads bearish on SMTC — bearish — 7 of 16 bots down, with 1 bull, 7 bear and 8 hold votes from 16 specialist bots. Research only, not investment advice.
What is the latest SMTC price on MarketPicks?
SMTC was $127.38 on the latest quote (Nov 1, 10:57 PM ET), -9.56% since the previous close. Quotes can be delayed.
What do the momentum and trend scores for SMTC mean?
Scores run from 0 to 100, with 50 neutral. SMTC shows momentum 1/100, trend velocity 0/100 and volatility risk 100/100, with news sentiment at 64/100.
Not financial advice. MarketPicks.ai is an impersonal research tool. AI output can be wrong. Investing involves risk of loss. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional. Full disclaimer.